Opinion Leaders' Digest 02-30
Date : September 19, 2002
Author : Lee Choon Kun, choonkunlee@ho tmail.com CFE Research Fellow

The USA assault on Iraq

1. Iraqi Development of Weapons of Mass Destruction

With the USA pressing for war with Iraq, it is insisting that Iraq should be deprived of nuclear weapons well in advance of the USA becoming the target of those same Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. What the USA worries most about Iraq's development of WMD is that those weapons will be ultimately handed over to and secured in the hands of terrorists, who will dare another attack of unthinkable dimension far and beyond the scale and dimension of the last year's September 11th terror attack. Accordingly, the USA may assault Iraq right now, well in advance of and before Iraq completes her development of nuclear weapons.

2. Second Phase of the Anti-terror War

The USA appears to have entered the second phase of its anti-terror war. The second phase is to attack Iraq. The USA's final objective is to remove Hussein from his throne, rather than just removing WMD from Iraq. Its first step was to attack the terrorist group and their direct hosts. Its strategic target was to destroy the organization of Al-Qaeda, Taliban regime of Afghanistan that had supported Al-Qaeda, and Osama Bin Laden, who personally orchestrated and conducted the terrorist attack.

3. International Opposition to the War

The majority of countries of the international community are expressing their objection to the USA-led war on Iraq. Israel and Australia support the USA most positively. The UK and Japan will support the USA both materially and morally once the USA enters war with Iraq. Some countries in the Middle East, such as Bahrain, Kuwait Qatar and Turkey will provide military bases to the USA. Arab block countries are opposing war very staunchly, even though some of them joined the USA during the Gulf War. Russia, Germany, India and China are united in objection to the USA. Russia is particularly engaged with economic collaboration with Iraq. However, Russia must depend on the USA for her economic sustenance. Germany worries about economic instability due to a resultant disturbed oil supply from Iraq and possibly from other oil- producing Arabic countries that sympathize with Iraq.

4. Primary Decisive Facts Leading to War

About 60-70% of Americans support armed invasion of Iraq according to the survey of public opinions in September, a decrease by 10% compared with the one in October last year. Americans think that the USA is the very victim of the terror and face more terrorist acts imminently. However, discord among the allies has been widening in diplomatic and military aspects ever since air attacks on Kosovo. The USA is the real single super power, and her military power is potent enough to engage in war with Iraq alone, without the headaches and inconveniences arising from combined military operations with allies.

5. When to Start the Attack?

The answer to this question depends upon the USA's design of the armed conflict with Iraq. Warplanes of the UK and the USA have been routinely bombing Iraq ever since the Gulf War. A simple air attack on Iraq is always possible at any moment. However, in case of an invasion up to Baghdad involving ground forces, it must at the earliest be January of next year. Occupation of Baghdad and security of public order there will require a force of 80,000 or more, costing about 20 billion dollars during the first year. This mode of an Iraqi war will take several months to commence.

(Condensed into English by JUNG Churle, jungchrl@unitel.co.kr 02-09-25)